Declines in Cancer Death Rates Among Youth: United States, 2001-2021.

Since the mid-1970s, cancer death rates for youth in the United States have declined significantly despite a slow increase in incidence for some of the major types (1-3). A previous report with trends from 1999 through 2014 showed declines for all 5-year age groups of youth (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19) (4). This Data Brief updates that report by presenting trends in cancer death rates through 2021. Rates from 2001 to 2021 are presented in total and for females and males. Rates for 2001, 2011, and 2021 are presented by 5-year age groups and for White, Black, and Hispanic youth. Trends are shown for the three most common types of cancer in youth.

COVID-19 Surveillance After Expiration of the Public Health Emergency Declaration - United States, May 11, 2023.

On January 31, 2020, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declared, under Section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, a U.S. public health emergency because of the emergence of a novel virus, SARS-CoV-2.* After 13 renewals, the public health emergency will expire on May 11, 2023. Authorizations to collect certain public health data will expire on that date as well. Monitoring the impact of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies remains a public health priority, and a number of surveillance indicators have been identified to facilitate ongoing monitoring. After expiration of the public health emergency, COVID-19-associated hospital admission levels will be the primary indicator of COVID-19 trends to help guide community and personal decisions related to risk and prevention behaviors; the percentage of COVID-19-associated deaths among all reported deaths, based on provisional death certificate data, will be the primary indicator used to monitor COVID-19 mortality. Emergency department (ED) visits with a COVID-19 diagnosis and the percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results, derived from an established sentinel network, will help detect early changes in trends. National genomic surveillance will continue to be used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions; wastewater surveillance and traveler-based genomic surveillance will also continue to be used to monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants. Disease severity and hospitalization-related outcomes are monitored via sentinel surveillance and large health care databases. Monitoring of COVID-19 vaccination coverage, vaccine effectiveness (VE), and vaccine safety will also continue. Integrated strategies for surveillance of COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses can further guide prevention efforts. COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths are largely preventable through receipt of updated vaccines and timely administration of therapeutics (1-4).

Provisional Mortality Data - United States, 2022.

The National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using U.S. death certificate data. Because of the time needed to investigate certain causes of death and to process and review death data, final annual mortality data for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Provisional data, which are based on the current flow of death certificate data to NCHS, provide an early estimate of deaths, before the release of final data. NVSS routinely releases provisional mortality data for all causes of death and for deaths associated with COVID-19.* This report is an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2022, including a comparison with 2021 death rates. In 2022, approximately 3,273,705 deaths† occurred in the United States. The estimated 2022 age-adjusted death rate decreased by 5.3%, from 879.7 per 100,000 persons in 2021 to 832.8. COVID-19 was reported as the underlying cause or a contributing cause in an estimated 244,986 (7.5%) of those deaths (61.3 deaths per 100,000). The highest overall death rates by age, race and ethnicity, and sex occurred among persons who were aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN), non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black), and male. In 2022, the four leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, and COVID-19. Provisional death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends and can guide public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing mortality, including deaths directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 Mortality Update - United States, 2022.

The National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using U.S. death certificate data. Provisional data, which are based on the current flow of death certificate data to NCHS, provide an early estimate of deaths before the release of final data.* This report summarizes provisional U.S. COVID-19 death data for 2022. In 2022, COVID-19 was the underlying (primary) or contributing cause in the chain of events leading to 244,986 deaths† that occurred in the United States. During 2021-2022, the estimated age-adjusted COVID-19-associated death rate decreased 47%, from 115.6 to 61.3 per 100,000 persons. COVID-19 death rates were highest among persons aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations, and males. In 76% of deaths with COVID-19 listed on the death certificate, COVID-19 was listed as the underlying cause of death. In the remaining 24% of COVID-19 deaths, COVID-19 was a contributing cause. As in 2020 and 2021, during 2022, the most common location of COVID-19 deaths was a hospital inpatient setting (59%). However, an increasing percentage occurred in the decedent's home (15%), or a nursing home or long-term care facility (14%).§ Provisional COVID-19 death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends and can help guide public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing COVID-19-associated mortality.

Epidemiologic and Clinical Features of Mpox-Associated Deaths - United States, May 10, 2022-March 7, 2023.

As of March 7, 2023, a total of 30,235 confirmed and probable monkeypox (mpox) cases were reported in the United States,† predominantly among cisgender men§ who reported recent sexual contact with another man (1). Although most mpox cases during the current outbreak have been self-limited, cases of severe illness and death have been reported (2-4). During May 10, 2022-March 7, 2023, 38 deaths among persons with probable or confirmed mpox¶ (1.3 per 1,000 mpox cases) were reported to CDC and classified as mpox-associated (i.e., mpox was listed as a contributing or causal factor). Among the 38 mpox-associated deaths, 94.7% occurred in cisgender men (median age = 34 years); 86.8% occurred in non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) persons. The median interval from symptom onset to death was 68 days (IQR = 50-86 days). Among 33 decedents with available information, 93.9% were immunocompromised because of HIV. Public health actions to prevent mpox deaths include integrated testing, diagnosis, and early treatment for mpox and HIV, and ensuring equitable access to both mpox and HIV prevention and treatment, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART) (5).

Excess all-cause mortality in the USA and Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 and 2021.

Both the USA and Europe experienced substantial excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods used to estimate excess mortality vary, making comparisons difficult. This retrospective observational study included data on deaths from all causes occurring in the USA and 25 European countries or subnational areas participating in the network for European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO). We applied the EuroMOMO algorithm to estimate excess all-cause mortality in the USA and Europe during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2021, and compared excess mortality by age group and time periods reflecting three primary waves. During 2020-2021, the USA experienced 154.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 154.2-154.9) cumulative age-standardized excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person years, compared with 110.4 (95% UI: 109.9-111.0) for the European countries. Excess all-cause mortality in the USA was higher than in Europe for nearly all age groups, with an additional 44.1 excess deaths per 100,000 person years overall from 2020-2021. If the USA had experienced an excess mortality rate similar to Europe, there would have been approximately 391 thousand (36%) fewer excess deaths in the USA.

Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, part 1: National cancer statistics.

BACKGROUND: The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. METHODS: Data on new cancer diagnoses during 2001-2018 were obtained from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries' Cancer in North America Incidence file, which is comprised of data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded and National Cancer Institute-funded, population-based cancer registry programs. Data on cancer deaths during 2001-2019 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System. Five-year average incidence and death rates along with trends for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types are reported by sex, racial/ethnic group, and age. RESULTS: Overall cancer incidence rates were 497 per 100,000 among males (ranging from 306 among Asian/Pacific Islander males to 544 among Black males) and 431 per 100,000 among females (ranging from 309 among Asian/Pacific Islander females to 473 among American Indian/Alaska Native females) during 2014-2018. The trend during the corresponding period was stable among males and increased 0.2% on average per year among females, with differing trends by sex, racial/ethnic group, and cancer type. Among males, incidence rates increased for three cancers (including pancreas and kidney), were stable for seven cancers (including prostate), and decreased for eight (including lung and larynx) of the 18 most common cancers considered in this analysis. Among females, incidence rates increased for seven cancers (including melanoma, liver, and breast), were stable for four cancers (including uterus), and decreased for seven (including thyroid and ovary) of the 18 most common cancers. Overall cancer death rates decreased by 2.3% per year among males and by 1.9% per year among females during 2015-2019, with the sex-specific declining trend reflected in every major racial/ethnic group. During 2015-2019, death rates decreased for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females, with the steepest declines (>4% per year) reported for lung cancer and melanoma. Five-year survival for adenocarcinoma and neuroendocrine pancreatic cancer improved between 2001 and 2018; however, overall incidence (2001-2018) and mortality (2001-2019) continued to increase for this site. Among children (younger than 15 years), recent trends were stable for incidence and decreased for mortality; and among, adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years), recent trends increased for incidence and declined for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer death rates continued to decline overall, for children, and for adolescents and young adults, and treatment advances have led to accelerated declines in death rates for several sites, such as lung and melanoma. The increases in incidence rates for several common cancers in part reflect changes in risk factors, screening test use, and diagnostic practice. Racial/ethnic differences exist in cancer incidence and mortality, highlighting the need to understand and address inequities. Population-based incidence and mortality data inform prevention, early detection, and treatment efforts to help reduce the cancer burden in the United States.

Evaluation of four gamma-based methods for calculating confidence intervals for age-adjusted mortality rates when data are sparse.

BACKGROUND: Equal-tailed confidence intervals that maintain nominal coverage (0.95 or greater probability that a 95% confidence interval covers the true value) are useful in interval-based statistical reliability standards, because they remain conservative. For age-adjusted death rates, while the Fay-Feuer gamma method remains the gold standard, modifications have been proposed to streamline implementation and/or obtain more efficient intervals (shorter intervals that retain nominal coverage). METHODS: This paper evaluates three such modifications for use in interval-based statistical reliability standards, the Anderson-Rosenberg, Tiwari, and Fay-Kim intervals, when data are sparse and sample size-based standards alone are overly coarse. Initial simulations were anchored around small populations (P = 2400 or 1200), the median crude all-cause US mortality rate in 2010-2019 (833.8 per 100,000), and the corresponding age-specific probabilities of death. To allow for greater variation in the age-adjustment weights and age-specific probabilities, a second set of simulations draws those at random, while holding the mean number of deaths at 20 or 10. Finally, county-level mortality data by race/ethnicity from four causes are selected to capture even greater variation: all causes, external causes, congenital malformations, and Alzheimer disease. RESULTS: The three modifications had comparable performance when the number of deaths was large relative to the denominator and the age distribution was as in the standard population. However, for sparse county-level data by race/ethnicity for rarer causes of death, and for which the age distribution differed sharply from the standard population, coverage probability in all but the Fay-Feuer method sometimes fell below 0.95. More efficient intervals than the Fay-Feuer interval were identified under specific circumstances. When the coefficient of variation of the age-adjustment weights was below 0.5, the Anderson-Rosenberg and Tiwari intervals appeared to be more efficient, whereas when it was above 0.5, the Fay-Kim interval appeared to be more efficient. CONCLUSIONS: As national and international agencies reassess prevailing data presentation standards to release age-adjusted estimates for smaller areas or population subgroups than previously presented, the Fay-Feuer interval can be used to develop interval-based statistical reliability standards with appropriate thresholds that are generally applicable. For data that meet certain statistical conditions, more efficient intervals could be considered.

Provisional Mortality Data - United States, 2021.

The CDC National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using U.S. death certificate data. Because of the time needed to investigate certain causes of death and to process and review death data, final annual mortality data for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Provisional data, which are based on death certificate data received but not fully reviewed by NCHS, provide an early estimate of deaths before the release of final data. NVSS routinely releases provisional mortality data for all causes of death and for deaths involving COVID-19.* This report presents an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2021, including a comparison of death rates for 2020 and 2021. In 2021, approximately 3,458,697 deaths† occurred in the United States. From 2020 to 2021, the age-adjusted death rate (AADR) increased by 0.7%, from 835.4 to 841.6 per 100,000 standard population. COVID-19 was reported as the underlying cause or a contributing cause in an estimated 460,513 (13.3%) of those deaths (111.4 deaths per 100,000). The highest overall death rates by age occurred among persons aged ≥85 years, and the highest overall AADRs by sex and race and ethnicity occurred among males and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) and non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) populations. COVID-19 death rates were highest among persons aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NH/OPI) and AI/AN populations, and males. For a second year, the top three leading causes of death by underlying cause were heart disease, cancer, and COVID-19. Provisional death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends and can guide public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing mortality directly or indirectly associated with the pandemic and among persons most affected, including persons who are older, male, or from certain race and ethnic minority groups.

Estimating the early impact of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme on COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths among adults aged 65 years and older: an ecological analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In the USA, COVID-19 vaccines became available in mid-December, 2020, with adults aged 65 years and older among the first groups prioritised for vaccination. We estimated the national-level impact of the initial phases of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme on COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths among adults aged 65 years and older. METHODS: We analysed population-based data reported to US federal agencies on COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths among adults aged 50 years and older during the period Nov 1, 2020, to April 10, 2021. We calculated the relative change in incidence among older age groups compared with a younger reference group for pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, defined by the week when vaccination coverage in a given age group first exceeded coverage in the reference age group by at least 1%; time lags for immune response and time to outcome were incorporated. We assessed whether the ratio of these relative changes differed when comparing the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. FINDINGS: The ratio of relative changes comparing the change in the COVID-19 case incidence ratio over the post-vaccine versus pre-vaccine periods showed relative decreases of 53% (95% CI 50 to 55) and 62% (59 to 64) among adults aged 65 to 74 years and 75 years and older, respectively, compared with those aged 50 to 64 years. We found similar results for emergency department visits with relative decreases of 61% (52 to 68) for adults aged 65 to 74 years and 77% (71 to 78) for those aged 75 years and older compared with adults aged 50 to 64 years. Hospital admissions declined by 39% (29 to 48) among those aged 60 to 69 years, 60% (54 to 66) among those aged 70 to 79 years, and 68% (62 to 73), among those aged 80 years and older, compared with adults aged 50 to 59 years. COVID-19 deaths also declined (by 41%, 95% CI -14 to 69 among adults aged 65-74 years and by 30%, -47 to 66 among those aged ≥75 years, compared with adults aged 50 to 64 years), but the magnitude of the impact of vaccination roll-out on deaths was unclear. INTERPRETATION: The initial roll-out of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme was associated with reductions in COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions among older adults. FUNDING: None.

Advancements in the National Vital Statistics System to Meet the Real-Time Data Needs of a Pandemic.

The National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS's) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects, processes, codes, and reviews death certificate data and disseminates the data in annual data files and reports. With the global rise of COVID-19 in early 2020, the NCHS mobilized to rapidly respond to the growing need for reliable, accurate, and complete real-time data on COVID-19 deaths. Within weeks of the first reported US cases, NCHS developed certification guidance, adjusted internal data processing systems, and stood up a surveillance system to release daily updates of COVID-19 deaths to track the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US mortality. This report describes the processes that NCHS took to produce timely mortality data in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(12):2133-2140. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306519).

Death Rates by Marital Status for Leading Causes of Death: United States, 2010-2019.

Objectives-This report presents age-adjusted death rates by marital status (married, never married, widowed, and divorced) among adults aged 25 and over. Rates for all-cause mortality are presented for 2010-2019 and for the 10 leading causes of death for 2010 and 2019.

Disparities in Excess Mortality Associated with COVID-19 - United States, 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected Hispanic or Latino, non-Hispanic Black (Black), non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN), and non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander (NH/PI) populations in the United States. These populations have experienced higher rates of infection and mortality compared with the non-Hispanic White (White) population (1-5) and greater excess mortality (i.e., the percentage increase in the number of persons who have died relative to the expected number of deaths for a given place and time) (6). A limitation of existing research on excess mortality among racial/ethnic minority groups has been the lack of adjustment for age and population change over time. This study assessed excess mortality incidence rates (IRs) (e.g., the number of excess deaths per 100,000 person-years) in the United States during December 29, 2019-January 2, 2021, by race/ethnicity and age group using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Among all assessed racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic Asian [Asian], AI/AN, Black, Hispanic, NH/PI, and White populations), excess mortality IRs were higher among persons aged ≥65 years (426.4 to 1033.5 excess deaths per 100,000 person-years) than among those aged 25-64 years (30.2 to 221.1) and those aged <25 years (-2.9 to 14.1). Among persons aged <65 years, Black and AI/AN populations had the highest excess mortality IRs. Among adults aged ≥65 years, Black and Hispanic persons experienced the highest excess mortality IRs of >1,000 excess deaths per 100,000 person-years. These findings could help guide more tailored public health messaging and mitigation efforts to reduce disparities in mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States,* by identifying the racial/ethnic groups and age groups with the highest excess mortality rates.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, Part 1: National Cancer Statistics.

BACKGROUND: The American Cancer Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Cancer Institute, and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer incidence and mortality and trends by cancer type, sex, age group, and racial/ethnic group in the United States. In this report, we also examine trends in stage-specific survival for melanoma of the skin (melanoma). METHODS: Incidence data for all cancers from 2001 through 2017 and survival data for melanoma cases diagnosed during 2001-2014 and followed-up through 2016 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention- and National Cancer Institute-funded population-based cancer registry programs compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Data on cancer deaths from 2001 to 2018 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates and 2-year relative survival were estimated by joinpoint analysis, and trends in incidence and mortality were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC) during the most recent 5 years (2013-2017 for incidence and 2014-2018 for mortality). RESULTS: Overall cancer incidence rates (per 100 000 population) for all ages during 2013-2017 were 487.4 among males and 422.4 among females. During this period, incidence rates remained stable among males but slightly increased in females (AAPC = 0.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.1% to 0.2%). Overall cancer death rates (per 100 000 population) during 2014-2018 were 185.5 among males and 133.5 among females. During this period, overall death rates decreased in both males (AAPC = -2.2%, 95% CI = -2.5% to -1.9%) and females (AAPC = -1.7%, 95% CI = -2.1% to -1.4%); death rates decreased for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females, but increased for 5 cancers in each sex. During 2014-2018, the declines in death rates accelerated for lung cancer and melanoma, slowed down for colorectal and female breast cancers, and leveled off for prostate cancer. Among children younger than age 15 years and adolescents and young adults aged 15-39 years, cancer death rates continued to decrease in contrast to the increasing incidence rates. Two-year relative survival for distant-stage skin melanoma was stable for those diagnosed during 2001-2009 but increased by 3.1% (95% CI = 2.8% to 3.5%) per year for those diagnosed during 2009-2014, with comparable trends among males and females. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer death rates in the United States continue to decline overall and for many cancer types, with the decline accelerated for lung cancer and melanoma. For several other major cancers, however, death rates continue to increase or previous declines in rates have slowed or ceased. Moreover, overall incidence rates continue to increase among females, children, and adolescents and young adults. These findings inform efforts related to prevention, early detection, and treatment and for broad and equitable implementation of effective interventions, especially among under resourced populations.

Decreases in COVID-19 Cases, Emergency Department Visits, Hospital Admissions, and Deaths Among Older Adults Following the Introduction of COVID-19 Vaccine - United States, September 6, 2020-May 1, 2021.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, older U.S. adults have been at increased risk for severe COVID-19-associated illness and death (1). On December 14, 2020, the United States began a nationwide vaccination campaign after the Food and Drug Administration's Emergency Use Authorization of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended prioritizing health care personnel and residents of long-term care facilities, followed by essential workers and persons at risk for severe illness, including adults aged ≥65 years, in the early phases of the vaccination program (2). By May 1, 2021, 82%, 63%, and 42% of persons aged ≥65, 50-64, and 18-49 years, respectively, had received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose. CDC calculated the rates of COVID-19 cases, emergency department (ED) visits, hospital admissions, and deaths by age group during November 29-December 12, 2020 (prevaccine) and April 18-May 1, 2021. The rate ratios comparing the oldest age groups (≥70 years for hospital admissions; ≥65 years for other measures) with adults aged 18-49 years were 40%, 59%, 65%, and 66% lower, respectively, in the latter period. These differential declines are likely due, in part, to higher COVID-19 vaccination coverage among older adults, highlighting the potential benefits of rapidly increasing vaccination coverage.

Death Certificate-Based ICD-10 Diagnosis Codes for COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance - United States, January-December 2020.

Approximately 375,000 deaths during 2020 were attributed to COVID-19 on death certificates reported to CDC (1). Concerns have been raised that some deaths are being improperly attributed to COVID-19 (2). Analysis of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnoses on official death certificates might provide an expedient and efficient method to demonstrate whether reported COVID-19 deaths are being overestimated. CDC assessed documentation of diagnoses co-occurring with an ICD-10 code for COVID-19 (U07.1) on U.S. death certificates from 2020 that had been reported to CDC as of February 22, 2021. Among 378,048 death certificates listing U07.1, a total of 357,133 (94.5%) had at least one other ICD-10 code; 20,915 (5.5%) had only U07.1. Overall, 97.3% of 357,133 death certificates with at least one other diagnosis (91.9% of all 378,048 death certificates) were noted to have a co-occurring diagnosis that was a plausible chain-of-event condition (e.g., pneumonia or respiratory failure), a significant contributing condition (e.g., hypertension or diabetes), or both. Overall, 70%-80% of death certificates had both a chain-of-event condition and a significant contributing condition or a chain-of-event condition only; this was noted for adults aged 18-84 years, both males and females, persons of all races and ethnicities, those who died in inpatient and outpatient or emergency department settings, and those whose manner of death was listed as natural. These findings support the accuracy of COVID-19 mortality surveillance in the United States using official death certificates. High-quality documentation of co-occurring diagnoses on the death certificate is essential for a comprehensive and authoritative public record. Continued messaging and training (3) for professionals who complete death certificates remains important as the pandemic progresses. Accurate mortality surveillance is critical for understanding the impact of variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and of COVID-19 vaccination and for guiding public health action.

Provisional Mortality Data - United States, 2020.

CDC's National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using data from U.S. death certificates. Because of the time needed to investigate certain causes of death and to process and review data, final annual mortality data for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Daily totals reported by CDC COVID-19 case surveillance are timely but can underestimate numbers of deaths because of incomplete or delayed reporting. As a result of improvements in timeliness and the pressing need for updated, quality data during the global COVID-19 pandemic, NVSS expanded provisional data releases to produce near real-time U.S. mortality data.* This report presents an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2020, including the first ranking of leading causes of death. In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths† occurred in the United States. From 2019 to 2020, the estimated age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9%, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population. COVID-19 was reported as the underlying cause of death or a contributing cause of death for an estimated 377,883 (11.3%) of those deaths (91.5 deaths per 100,000). The highest age-adjusted death rates by age, race/ethnicity, and sex occurred among adults aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) persons, and males. COVID-19 death rates were highest among adults aged ≥85 years, AI/AN and Hispanic persons, and males. COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in 2020, after heart disease and cancer. Provisional death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends and can guide public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing numbers of deaths that are directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.